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An impending political storm over drafting Haredi men into the military is posing a risk to the administration and dividing the state.

Popular sentiment on the matter has shifted dramatically in Israel in the wake of two years of hostilities, and this is now possibly the most volatile political challenge facing Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Judicial Battle

Lawmakers are reviewing a draft bill to abolish the exemption given to ultra-Orthodox men engaged in full-time religious study, created when the State of Israel was declared in 1948.

That exemption was struck down by the Supreme Court in the early 2000s. Temporary arrangements to continue it were officially terminated by the court last year, pressuring the government to commence conscription of the ultra-Orthodox population.

Approximately 24,000 enlistment orders were issued last year, but merely about 1,200 men from the community showed up, according to defense officials shared with lawmakers.

Tensions Spill Onto the Streets

Tensions are erupting onto the public squares, with lawmakers now debating a new legislative proposal to compel yeshiva students into army duty alongside other Jewish citizens.

A pair of ultra-Orthodox lawmakers were harassed this month by hardline activists, who are enraged with parliament's discussion of the bill.

Recently, a specialized force had to assist army police who were targeted by a sizeable mob of ultra-Orthodox protesters as they tried to arrest a suspected draft-evader.

These enforcement actions have prompted the establishment of a new messaging system dubbed "Black Alert" to rapidly disseminate information through Haredi neighborhoods and call out demonstrators to prevent arrests from occurring.

"We're a Jewish country," said Shmuel Orbach. "It's impossible to battle Judaism in a Jewish state. It is a contradiction."

An Environment Separate

But the shifts sweeping across Israel have not reached the walls of the religious seminary in Bnei Brak, an ultra-Orthodox city on the fringes of Tel Aviv.

Inside the classroom, teenage boys sit in pairs to debate the Torah, their brightly coloured writing books contrasting with the lines of formal attire and traditional skullcaps.

"Visit in the early hours, and you will see a significant portion are engaged in learning," the leader of the yeshiva, the spiritual guide, explained. "Through religious study, we protect the soldiers on the front lines. This constitutes our service."

Haredi Jews maintain that unceasing devotion and religious study guard Israel's soldiers, and are as essential to its security as its conventional forces. This conviction was endorsed by Israel's politicians in the past, Rabbi Mazuz said, but he admitted that the nation is evolving.

Rising Public Pressure

This religious sector has more than doubled its proportion of the nation's citizens over the past seven decades, and now accounts for around one in seven. A policy that originated as an deferment for a few hundred Torah scholars turned into, by the onset of the 2023 war, a cohort of some 60,000 men exempt from the draft.

Opinion polls suggest approval of ultra-Orthodox conscription is rising. A survey in July showed that 85% of non-Haredi Jews - even a large segment in his own coalition allies - favored consequences for those who refused a call-up notice, with a firm majority in favor of withdrawing benefits, the right to travel, or the right to vote.

"It seems to me there are citizens who reside in this country without serving," one off-duty soldier in Tel Aviv said.

"In my view, regardless of piety, [it] should be an justification not to fulfill your duty to your state," stated a Tel Aviv resident. "As a citizen by birth, I find it quite ridiculous that you want to opt out just to learn in a yeshiva all day."

Views from Within the Community

Advocacy of broadening conscription is also found among observant Jews beyond the ultra-Orthodox sector, like Dorit Barak, who lives near the yeshiva and notes religious Zionists who do enlist in the army while also maintaining their faith.

"I am frustrated that this community don't serve in the army," she said. "It is unjust. I also believe in the Jewish law, but there's a saying in Hebrew - 'The Book and the Sword' – it represents the scripture and the weapons together. That's the way forward, until the arrival of peace."

Ms Barak manages a local tribute in her city to fallen servicemen, both observant and non-observant, who were killed in battle. Lines of faces {