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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.